UK Energy Recovery & Waste Treatment Overcapacity by 2021 : Eunomia Report: UK Still on Course for Over Capacity in Waste Infrastructure
The UK is still on course to exceed the waste infrastructure it will need in future, according to the ninth issue of Eunomia’s Residual Waste Infrastructure Review.
The environmental consultants said that this is especially true if the country is to achieve the higher levels of recycling envisaged in the European Commission’s Circular Economy Package, but remains true even at lower recycling rates.
According to the report, the capacity of facilities either currently operational, being built or having reached financial close and expected to be operational by 2020/21, combined with anticipated waste exports, will total 23.1 million tpa of demand. Fully utilised, this will exceed the 22.7 million tonnes of residual waste expected to be produced in the year.
Eunomia explained that to reach this conclusion it also reviewed the various alternative assessments of treatment capacity and arisings presented by waste industry organisations, summarised in the recent Biffa report The Reality Gap. One suggestion was that scenario analysis should be deployed to understand the sensitivity to some variables.
“When you focus on the overall conclusions of the reports, they appear consistent with one another, and Eunomia looks like the odd one out. However, breaking them down and looking separately at their estimates of capacity and arisings produces a rather different picture,” commented, Adam Baddeley, the Infrastructure Review’s lead author.
In broad terms, Eunomia said that its estimates of waste arisings are similar to those of Biffa, the Green Investment Bank and Tolvik; meanwhile, Eunomia’s estimates of residual waste treatment capacity broadly align with those of Ricardo-AEA and SITA.
“The interesting question isn’t – ‘Why are Eunomia’s conclusions different?’ Rather, it’s ‘Why, despite disagreeing so significantly on their assumptions, do all of the other reports reach the same conclusions?” he added.
The headline analysis provided in the latest version of the report:
Includes a “low recycling” scenario in which the UK does not reach 65% municipal recycling by 2030. Both commercial and industrial waste recycling continue at expected 2020 levels
Revises downward the capacity estimates for a number of facilities to reflect recent data and expectations regarding their performance
Excludes all facilities other than those that are operational, under construction or which have reached financial close from the analysis (so excluding the facilities which have relevant consents, but which may not be constructed).
According to the analysts, these changes push back the date at which the supply of treatment capacity exceeds the amount of suitable waste available. Nevertheless, Eunomia noted that its main findings continue to refute those of other commentators, all of which have concluded that there remains significant scope for additional investment in UK residual waste treatment infrastructure.
The full report can be downloaded HERE
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